The Brisnet ProfitLine is a quick and easy way to identify potential overlays. Any of the top five ranked horses listed on the sheet whose final odds significantly exceeds their ProfitLine odds should be viewed as offering value relative to their estimated win probability. The sheet also identifies "Chalk Busters", or top ranked horses on the ProfitLine that are not the morning line favorite, as well as "Morning Line Overlays", or runners that ProfitLine rates the chances of winning more probable than the morning line. A look at Saturday's Chalk Busters that are also Morning Line Overlays follows.
Churchill Race 3. The morning line favorite is Q Mac's Phone tabbed at 5/2. However, having not raced since last November he must be considered vulnerable and is only ranked fourth on the Brisnet Prime Power. the ProfitLine Chalk Buster at 5/2 is Charlie V. who is coming off a win at Indiana Downs and is 4/1 on the morning line.
Churchill Race 4. McGauley is coming off a two month break while dropping in class and is the morning line favorite at 5/2. However, he stopped badly in his last start and trainer Helen Pitts has not excelled with runners coming off a layoff. McGauley does not rank in the top five in the ProfitLine and is fourth on the Prime Power. The Chalk Buster is the Steve Asmussen trained All West who would be considered an overlay at 5/2 or over.
Churchill Race 11. Top ranked on ProfitLine is Ruth E who is the 7/2 second favorite on the morning line making her a Chalk Buster. Odds of 5/2 or better could be acceptable on the Bill Mott trained filly who was narrowly beaten at this level in her last start.
Arlington Race 4. Tee Lak is making her second start off a layoff, a situation in which her trainer, Hector Magana, wins at 21 percent. The seven-year-old mare is the top ProfitLine pick at 7/2 while she is tabbed as a 9/2 chance on the morning line.
Arlington Race 6. The morning line pick is Montana Mike who appears a risky bet coming off a long layoff and taking a drastic drop in class. Winner's Story however, is in good form having finished second at this level last time. He is the ProfitLine pick at odds of 4/1 and his morning line is 9/2.
Arlington Race 8. The best value bet of the day identified by the ProfitLine may be Time To Get It. A wire-to-wire winner of his last start over this course and distance, Time to Get It is 8/1 on the morning line while given fair odds of just 7/2 by the ProfitLine. The five-year-old is also the top Prime Power pick.
Arlington Race 10. Fufty Too ran poorly over the off track here on Derby week but had previously finished a good second to the promising Everyday Heroes at Oaklawn and had been third in a decent stakes at the same venue. He is a ProfitLine Chalk Buster with odds of 3/1 or more representing value.
Calder Race 12. The strong ProfitLine selection is the debuting three-year-old A Thousand Ocean. Trained by Jose Pinchin who wins with 20 percent of his first time starters, A Thousand Ocean is considered value at 7/5 or over. The morning line choice is Beso Negro at 9/5 who has already failed to win in eight tries including several at this level.
Tim Holland 6-5-09.
BELMONT STAKES PPs & Reports are available online at Brisnet.com
