SUN SHOWER (3) was an easy winner of a conditioned claimer at Keeneland and looks capable of the next step up here. She has the tactical speed to be in a good position from the start. BONNIE BONITA (4) ran well last time she faced this class level over this track. She has been in poor form lately but could improve on the class drop. HOUR QUEEN (6) looks like she can handle the extra distance off a good third in a sprint against similar.
3-4-6
Race 2
MESSA NERA (2) was well-meant in his debut and could improve off that effort. He is stretching out from a sprint to a distance race here, but hails from a capable barn. STONEY’S LADD (1) just missed in a game performance in his first start of the year. He has the pedigree to handle today’s added ground and is clearly the one to beat. PERRY (6) has an advantage over the top two as he ran around two turns in his last start. He could take a step forward in his third start of the year.
2-1-6
Race 3
EXCESSIVE HEAT (3) has proven sprint form on the turf, which gives her the slight edge over this field. She has good speed and has been working very well for this start. BLITZING (2) makes her turf debut for the Asmussen stable. She ran well against some solid competition as a 2-year-old and has the class to be a factor if she takes to the grass. AMARETTA’S WAY (5) ran her two best races sprinting on the turf and should get plenty of pace in this spot to set up her late run.
3-2-5
Race 4
TORA (3) returns to Churchill Downs, where she has scored her only two career victories. She gets the edge as she drops in class and makes her second start off the layoff. CAT SPLENDOR (1) was claimed off an easy victory last out and is in the best current form of this group. She has the speed to be in a good spot in this quick group. SUPERFLY GIRL (4) was second to Cat Splendor after having the jump on that rival early. She has an overall strong record at Churchill Downs.
3-1-4
Race 5
CAPTAIN MALLORY (2) returns from the sidelines at an all-time low claiming level, but still must be given consideration off his prior success against better foes over this track. ULAH TYSON (5) looks best of the rest if the top pick is not in good enough form to handle this group. He was claimed off a game runner-up effort and has an advantage in fitness. TWIN TALK (4) just missed at this level last out and rarely runs a bad race. His consistency and local record make him a danger with these.
2-5-4
Race 6
MISS PRIMETIME (6) appears to have found a good spot to finally break through with her maiden victory. Mena gets the call and should have her close enough to be in a good position coming off the turn. SECRET SOURCE (5) should improve with a race under her belt and has the pedigree to prefer the added ground today. CRIMSON HOPE (4) adds blinkers to improve her focus. She is a sister to stakes winner Tessa Blue, who started winning when stretched out to two turns.
6-5-4
Race 7
CALLIE’S JOY (7) ran well on the lead, but settled late for third in a fairly strong allowance race over this course. She will have to overcome an outside post, but a repeat of her last gives her a strong chance. KATERBUG (1) makes her second start of the year and could improve off the layoff. She is a bit inconsistent, but merits a look on her best effort. GONE OVERBOARD (4) was a winner on this course last November and seems to run well fresh. ALMONSOON (6) has back stakes class in marathon turf events and will need a strong pace to be a factor as she shortens up today.
7-1-4
Race 8
WANNABEINCLUED (4) takes blinkers off and turns back to a sprint distance at which he shows a win. Most importantly he is dropping into this conditioned claimer out of stronger allowance races. FORT APACHE STAR (2) ran a good third at this level to next out winner Xela at Keeneland. He has shown the ability to run well on the main track, but he catches a very strong field today. MYSTERY GUEST (8) was just able to get his maiden win last out and looks best of the rest of the field and could land a share.
4-2-8
Race 9 - $100,000 Matt Winn Stakes
LING LING QI (7) is very good on his best effort, and did so in a win here during Derby Week. He’s drawn to the outside, can sit off the expected fast pace and be in a position to take over down the stretch in the Matt Winn Stakes. EATON’S GIFT (3) should appreciate the turn back in distance and his best races put him right in the mix with this field. DEVEREUX (6) steps up off an easy victory at Evangeline Downs for good connections. His race here last fall was a good performance and he could run down the top pair late.
7-3-6
Race 10
VEILED PROPHET (11) makes his first start on the turf and has the pedigree to move forward on the new surface. He ducked into the temporary rail in his last start but could make amends for Mena today with a good trip close to the pace. HARD STRIKE (5) makes his first start since November but looks to be training well for a leading stable. He was in great form last fall before going to the sidelines and had a win on this turf course. GLEE CLUB (2) tends to find a great deal of traffic trouble with his off-the-pace running style. If he can work out a trip he’ll be a solid contender from off the pace.
11-5-2
Value Plays
Race 6
SECRET SOURCE (5) raced wide throughout in her debut to finish eighth beaten just over seven lengths by an impressive winner. She stretches out to a route of ground for her second start which she should enjoy judging by her pedigree; she is by Mineshaft and a half sister to Lead Story, a three time Grade 2 stakes winner at Churchill Downs.
Let’s play Secret Source (5) across the board at 4-1 or up. Suggest using No Warning (2), Miss Primetime (6) and One Caroline (7) in exotics.
Race 7
PUT AWAY THE HALO (5) didn’t appreciate the main track at Oaklawn Park in her last two outings and switches back to the turf course. The last time this mare went a route of ground over the turf course she became a stakes winner.
Let’s play Put Away The Halo (5) across the board at 4-1 or up. Suggest using Gone Overboard (4) and Callie’s Joy (7) in exotics.
Race 10
VEILED PROPHET (11) had an eventful trip last out, attemping to jump the rail and losing jockey Miguel Mena. He stretches out to a route of ground in today’s race and gets a chance to run over the grass, for which he is bred.
Let’s play Veiled Prophet (11) across the board at 5-1 or up. Suggest using Rock Gold (6), Hard Strike (5) and Gasconade (7) in exotics.
