KentuckyDerby.com | KentuckyOaks.com | TwinSpires.com | Brisnet.com

Daily Handicapping

«»Wednesday, May 21, 2008
Jill Byrne

Jill Byrne

Meet Record: 493 159-98-69
Win: 32 ITM: 66
Analysis
n/a

Merv Huber

Meet Record: 83 16-13-10
Win: 20 ITM: 47
Value Plays

Analysis

Race 1

RAFFIE’S AIR (1A) and EL SALSERO (1) comprise a formidable entry for trainer John Hancock and each looks capable of a win with his best effort. Raffie's Air turns back in distance off a race in which he faltered late after setting the pace. He was claimed out of that start and looks to get a good trip today. El Salsero also goes off the claim after he closed ground late against a solid field last out. DELTA CHARLIE (6) has run well at Churchill and if he is back on form he is likely to be a speed factor in this group.

1A-1-6

Race 2

REGARDLESOFOUTCOME (4) has had two good races in his young career and looks like the best in this field. He has turned in a "bullet" drill since that last start, which indicates that he’s sharp. WAR LAP (8) goes for the powerful juvenile barn of trainer Steve Asmussen and must be given a strong look in his debut. ANOTHER DANCER (1) shows a “best of” workout over this track in preparation for his first start. He is bred to be precocious, but must overcome today’s rail post.

4-8-1

Race 3

I NV SLEW (5) tries to rebound from a poor effort as the favorite over a muddy track last out at Mountaineer. He has worked very well over this track for top connections since and could be ready for a top effort today. GOLDEN GLEN (2) just missed in a strong race at this level last out and is the one to beat if he can repeat that performance. DON’T FRET (6) was a win over this track and would benefit from a contested early pace. VILLAINAGE (3) drops sharply in class and has run well in the past against better fields.

5-2-6

Race 4

A TO THE CROFT (7) was overmatched in the Grade I Kentucky Oaks, drops back into allowance company and tries the turf for the first time. She has a fondness for Polytrack, which suggests she could also take to the grass. PRINCESS WESTLY (8) is a deep closer who has had turf success that includes two runner-up finishes over the Matt Winn course. WILLOW CREEK (6) could be alone on the lead as there is no confirmed pace in this race. If she takes to the grass, she could be tough to run down.

7-8-6

Race 5

FULL MARKS (7) was a distant third in an allowance race at Mountaineer last out and the winner of that race won his next start. He is well-placed in this conditioned claimer and leading rider Leparoux gets the call. CANTALLBECHIEFS (3) broke poorly on the turf last out and could never make up any ground. He has run well at this level on the main track and goes today for sharp connections. VICTORY FLYER (1) has been away from the races since November, but looks to be training well enough for this spot. Many of his best efforts have come on turf, but must be given a look for a hot stable with Castanon aboard.

7-3-1

Race 6

NO LAC O ZIP (3) drops in class as he returns to Churchill Downs, where he has most of his success for top claiming connections. He was unable to hold on in most recent start when he was forced on the lead on a synthetic track. UNBRIDLED SPRING (1) is a bit inconsistent, but does come in off a hard-fought victory here at this class level. His chances improve greatly if the track is wet. DELIGHTFUL DEMI (4) was third behind the second pick after being forced to go wide while making his run. He usually runs his race and cannot be left out of the exotics.

3-1-4

Race 7

WHIRLIE BERTIE (3) was an easy last out maiden winner at decent odds over a wet track. She took that field wire-to-wire, but is more likely to seek a stalking spot in her first try against winners. FRENCH KISS (1) was a good runner-up last out the impressive Honest Pursuit. She has faced and run well against some of the best of her age group. RASIERRA (5) was overmatched in the Grade I Kentucky Oaks, but must be considered with today’s big drop in class. She would benefit from a strong pace. HANDLETHETRUTH (6) looks to take a step forward off a good effort in a race that was her third start off a layoff.

3-1-5

Race 8

BULLARA (8) is in good form for the Pletcher stable and his tactical speed and outside post should make him a factor on this turf course with the temporary rail up. A.P. XCELLENT (6) had the lead in soft fractions last out only to lose late to the talented Corrupt. That was his first start since September and he has the back class to be a solid threat. WICKED STYLE (1) makes his first start since the Breeders Cup Juvenile and is unbeaten on synthetic tracks, which suggests he could handle the switch to turf. His dam has a turf pedigree and comes from a strong barn. DOMINICAN (2) is a quality runner with good Polytrack form making his turf debut.

8-6-1

Race 9

BEAUTIFUL YOU (5) gets the slight edge in this soft field of maiden claimers. He has had many chances but goes for the lowest level of his career and that could be enough. HANDSOME SPORT (1) outran his odds when third at this level last out and anything close to a repeat of that run gives him a chance. VALID CITIZEN (4) stretches back out today off a good second place effort while sprinting. He also shows a decent second at today's distance and looks capable of a strong performance today.

5-1-4

Value Plays

Race 3

GOLDEN GLEN (2) has shown good form in these claiming ranks. He has been in the money 7 of 12 times on the Churchill dirt strip. The seasoned son of Forestry gets Calvin Borel aboard in this race and should be ready for a win.

Let’s play Golden Glen (2) across the board at 3-1 or up. Suggest using I Nv Slew (5) in exotics.

Race 7

WHIRLIE BERTIE (3) makes her third career start in this first level allowance race for trainer Steve Margolis. She should be well acquainted with the racetrack and pilot Calvin Borel after her impressive recent maiden score on the Oaks Day under card.

Let’s play Whirlie Bertie (3) across the board at 4-1 or up. Suggest using Rasierra (5) and French Kiss (1) in exotics.

Race 8

A. P. XCELLENT (6) tries another turf allowance after just missing last out. He should enjoy this company after facing much tougher in Grade I foes in California. The son of A.P. Indy gets Larry Melancon, who is always one to watch on the turf.

Let’s play A.P. Excellent (6) across the board at 3-1 or up. Suggest using Dominican (2) and Wicked Style (1) in exotics.
«»Wednesday, May 21, 2008