Daily Handicapping
Analysis
2008-07-04 Race#1
HOT GOLD (1) comes right back on a short rest and drops into an easier claiming race for 3-year-old fillies only. She ran evenly against a tough group of open claimers last out and has the speed to be in a good spot from the rail today. BUBBLE BERRY (4) has been in good form and comes off a dominating win over conditioned claimers. She is well spotted again and looks like the one to beat. GEESKA (2) adds blinkers, drops sharply in price and gets leading rider Albarado back in the saddle.
2008-07-04 Race#2
STONEY’S LADD (6) now faces bottom maiden claimers and shortens up significantly in distance. He will have to be a bit closer to avoid having too much to do in the late going, but he should show more pace with the class drop. DESTIN CALLS (9) is a debut runner from the Amoss stable with a couple of decent five-furlong workouts for a horse at this level. He could be a good option in a field in which the ones that have run have shown little. PRINCE AMOUR (4) made up some ground to be a non- threatening third last out, but should be in the mix with this field.
2008-07-04 Race#3
CACTUS CONIE (3) and TIFFANY MARIE (5) make up a powerful uncoupled entry from the Amoss stable and each has credentials to handle this group. The former rarely puts in a dull effort and should sit just off the pace, and that gives her the slight edge. The latter had a bit of traffic trouble in her first start over this course, but has the speed to be in a good position from the start today. HOLIDAY CRUISE (2) comes out of a decent try at long odds in a very strong allowance race. She had a troubled trip that day and today’s class drop makes her a threat on her best.
2008-07-04 Race#4
HE RULES (4) has been in good form and has a solid record at the distance. He looks to get a good trip from just off the pace and is capable of getting the top spot with a repeat of his last few starts. BUDDHA CALLING (7) is dropped to the bottom level in his first local start for new trainer Tom Amoss. His credentials make him the most likely challenger to the top choice if he gets close to the form he displayed over the winter. AVER (2) has been consistent with three third-place finishes against slightly better company. He has a strong chance from off the pace.
2008-07-04 Race#5
PUMP UP (7) steps up to allowance company following an easy victory over a solid group of maidens. She has run well in both her local efforts and has drawn well on the outside for her first try against winners. SILENT STREET (5) exits two stakes races and has had many chances at this condition. She has yet to miss the board in three tries over this track and her experience could give her the edge. NADESHIKO (6) returned from a layoff with a hard fought victory last out. She had the rail that day and showed a professional style of running to get up for the win.
2008-07-04 Race#6
CRIMSON DYNAMO (2) returns to the main track as he makes his first start since February. He has been training forwardly over this track and gets a slight edge in a well-matched group. CAUSATION (9) showed good speed before being well-beaten at this level last out, but that was his best effort to date. He draws outside today and could be a danger if he can repeat his last effort. FOOLISH PROMISE (1) has been away since December, but has been put together a steady series of works for his return.
2008-07-04 Race#7
ITSALLBOUTTHECHASE (7) defeated a good field with a strong rally when he added blinkers and returned to the main track last out. He meets another tough and well-matched group today, but has a good record over this track and can be a factor from just off the pace. LONGLEY (1) makes his first local start and his debut for trainer Jimmy Baker, who is enjoying a good year. He has four wins at the distance and makes his third start of a layoff. DUBIOUS MISS (3) is another Churchill Downs specialist who comes off consecutive wins and could be in a stalking spot here.
2008-07-04 Race#8
CREATIVE DESIGN (4) looked on her way to victory before being caught late by the good turf mare Sousaphone. She was well ahead of the rest and a similar effort gives her a strong chance today. ASPIRING (1) makes her turf debut off a distant and troubled fourth in the Grade II Fleur de Lis. She has run against good fields on Polytrack and should handle the new surface. FINAL REFRAIN (5) was an even fourth in a good field last out over this course. She handles any kind of turf as well as the main track and is usually close at the finish. Main track selections: Whirlie Bertie (9), Highest Class (1A), Aspiring (1)
2008-07-04 Race#9
FOREST COMMAND (2) did everything but win when he fell just a head short in an excellent debut at this seven-furlong distance. He’s had two quick workouts since and looks tough to go against today. GLENWOOD CANYON (7) has run well in both starts against strong maiden fields. He draws a good post today and a little racing luck makes him a factor down the stretch. BIG DIVOT (5) was a costly 2-year-old sales purchase last year and makes his debut for the Asmussen stable. He has been training well at Arlington and could be a strong force from the start.
2008-07-04 Race#10
EINSTEIN (3) won the Grade I Woodford Reserve Turf Classic here and exits a good runner-up finish to champion Curlin on the dirt in the Grade I Stephen Foster. The mile distance may not be his best, but he should handle this field with a good trip. INCA KING (7) is unbeaten and a three-time stakes winner over this course. He is usually on or near the lead and his strong turn of foot makes him tough to catch down the lane. THORN SONG (2) overcame some traffic to win at the distance over this course last out. He finished a head behind Einstein in the Grade I Makers Mark Mile and has competed with some of the country’s best turf runners.
2008-07-04 Race#11
SPY PARK (8) had a wide trip and chased fairly quick fractions in a strong maiden race last out. He draws outside again today and should benefit from the race experience. ALL STAR CHRIS (2) was bet down a bit for his debut and showed a little pace that day before faltering. He came back with a sharp work and is probably better than he showed first out. WHO DONE THAT (3) finished three lengths in front of the top pick after setting quick fractions, but must negotiate a bit more ground today. BOSTONER (6) adds to what could be a fast pace and could move forward in his third start off a layoff. GRAND MOUNTAIN (9) adds blinkers and turns back in distance as he shifts from turf-to-dirt. He could pick up the pieces if the pace is too sharp and contested.
Value Plays
2008-07-04 Race#5
DICTINA TOO (2) finished second in a turf sprint last time out after closing fast on the outside; closing on the outside of this turf course is no small feat. She is proven over the main track here at Churchill Downs having taken a maiden event in April by over ten lengths. She’ll be tough to beat in here.
2008-07-04 Race#8
FINAL REFRAIN (5) is an ultra consistent filly, finishing on the board in ten of fourteen lifetime starts. She finds a softer bunch of rivals in this race than she has been facing and gets the meet-leading jockey aboard for the ride, making her a threat for the win at long odds.
2008-07-04 Race#11
TIP TOP H. A. T. (4) improved considerably last time out in his first start over a conventional dirt surface and his first start in nearly eight months; he shows a bullet workout since that effort. It appears the winter break did this colt good. He is a full brother to the remarkably fast millionaire Bourbon Belle, who has gone on to produce Queen’s Plate winner Not Bourbon.











