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Daily Handicapping

«»Saturday, July 5, 2008
Jill Byrne

Jill Byrne

Meet Record: 493 159-98-69
Win: 32 ITM: 66
Value Plays

Analysis

Race 1

TALETOBETOLD (7) comes in off a sprint win on the turf and figures to get a good set-up again today. She does not have to be on the lead and her outside draw, with the temporary rail down, should allow her to sit in a good spot from the start. JUST FOR KEEPS (3) is in good form and defeated the top pick when she won the Mamzelle over this course during Kentucky Derby Week. CHANGE UP (1) tries the turf for the first time, but her pedigree suggests she should excel on the new surface. She is a proven stakes performer and can get a perfect trip here under Borel.

7-3-1

Race 2

BUSTY MISS (5) and KEPT LADY (2) are stablemates who are running uncoupled for the Romans barn. Busty Miss returned from a brief vacation with a nose loss after having the lead inside the eighth pole. Kept Lady faced open claimers in a good runner-up effort last out and should be closing late today. FAST QUEENA (1) just broke her maiden, but faces a soft group in her first try against winners and can handle the step up for her top connections.

5-2-1

Race 3

PARTNERS STAR (6) showed speed before she faded late in her debut in a very strong maiden allowance race. She takes a class drop and gets the edge in off that good first race. TAPITSDONTLIE (3) was claimed out of a runner-up finish at this level in her debut. She could benefit from the racing experience and looks closest in this group to the top pick. TALKINONTHERUN (4) ran evenly in her only start and could be a factor right back at this level.

6-3-4

Race 4

FIELD COMMANDER (8) drops down off the claim by Ken and Sarah Ramsey, who have already wrapped up a record 13th “Leading Owner” title. He appears the strongest of this group and should be in a good spot from the start on his outside post. GENERAL JAKE (2) put in a clunker last time, but his prior efforts would make him a force with this field. There’s not much pace in here, but he can be close enough early if that’s where Borel wants him. ALLTOGETHERNOW (6) shows a couple of thirds at this level and has the credentials to break through today with an effort similar to either of those performances.

8-2-6

Race 5

(Guest analysis by John Asher) – PHOSPHORESCENT (9) gets leading rider Robby Albarado in the saddle as he makes his debut off a string of strong works for the Romans barn. His sire has a great pedigree and this one should be ready for a big effort at first asking. CLICKER (7) is a nicely bred colt with works over Polytrack at Keeneland that are a little quicker than usual for the Asmussen barn. This stable, which has two in the race, always has them ready and Bridgmohan gets the mount on this one. COWBOY AT HEART (3) turned in a big effort in his Keeneland debut, but that was in early April and he’ll have to prove himself again today. He adds blinkers.

9-7-3

Race 6

SANDSTORM CAT (9) missed by a head on the turf last out and looks set for a top effort today. She has the speed to be close and leading rider Albarado is up. QUIET ALICE (6) was a length behind the top pick last out and could make a big move forward as she makes her third start off a layoff. STARASTRA (3) is a well-bred filly making her stateside debut for Michelle Nihei, who has had a strong meet with limited starters. She gets Lasix and shows a series of useful workouts for this spot.

9-6-3

Race 7

LEAD TIME (3) was claimed by top connections off a third pace effort at this level and has “waited out” to run back at the same price. She made up little ground that day, but appears to have an ideal pace set-up today along with some additional distance. BERENGARIA (5) closed from off the pace last out in a stronger sprint and looks perfectly suited to today’s longer distance. Her last four races have her in good form and she should not be too far off the pace early. FABULOUS MOOLAH (4) set the fractions last out before she was run down late at a mile. She could last longer with the slight turn back in distance.

3-5-4

Race 8

PAIUTE (8) is one of many first-time starters in here who have trained well for their debuts. This Indian Charlie colt has posted good back-to-back gate works over Polytrack. ZION (5) hails from the powerful juvenile arsenal of Steve Asmussen. He as a steady series of works for his debut and a pedigree that suggests he should love this surface. FAST DRAW (9) is a full brother to Grand Slam and has turned in some impressive morning works for the D. Wayne Lukas stable.

8-5-9

Race 9

GRAND SHOCK (8) closed well to be fourth against a much stronger field in her first race since October. She should be able to improve off that start and figures to be a bit closer today. MORAKAMI (3) ran her best race at today's distance and could be a factor in this group with a return to the form she displayed in that race. TRIPPLE GIFT (4) came off the bench with a big maiden score last out and figures to be part of the pace as she steps up to face winners. SOLICIT (6) has a chance today as she comes out of a tough allowance race last out.

8-3-4

Race 10 - 107th Running of the Bashford Manor (Grade III)

SEGAL (5) faded when trying stakes company over Woodbine’s Polytrack following his impressive maiden score over this track. He has worked well since returning to Churchill and gets a good post today. THEREGOESJOJO (3) displayed a powerful stretch run in his debut victory. There’s plenty of speed here and he could pick up the pieces with today’s added distance. LYIN’ HEART (7) is a stablemate of Segal who ships from Texas with a pair of wins. He steps up in class, but has the experience and pedigree to contend with this quality group.

5-3-7

Race 11

DARKNESS FALLS (5) was a solid fourth in her turf debut and gets the slight edge in this fairly soft maiden turf event off that effort. That was also her first try at two turns. BK’S SIS’ BIRTHDAY (3) just failed to last on a sloppy track last out and ran a decent race in her lone turf try. KERMITRA (11) exits a tougher spot and has a strong turf pedigree. FINE LINE (7) has shown nothing on the main track, but could be able to race up to her pedigree with today’s added ground and surface switch. PAUL’S GIFT (9) is a debut runner with a top turf family and some stamina-building workouts that could have him ready to go.

5-3-11-7-9

Value Plays

Race 1

TALETOBETOLD (7) won smartly last time out when she chased down the early leader on the outside. She has always shown an affinity for the Matt Winn Turf Course and looks poised to run another big race.

Let’s play TALETOBETOLD (7) across the board at 7-2 or up. Suggest using CHANGE UP (1), JUST FOR KEEPS (3) and CAT ON A CLOUD (4) in exotics.

Race 8

FAST DRAW (9) was a late scratch out of a maiden race here a couple weeks ago. This well-bred colt looks ready to fire at first asking for trainer D. Wayne Lukas. He is out of Kentucky Oaks third place finisher Bright Candles, making him a full brother to Grand Slam, who was a multiple Grade 1 winner as a two-year-old.

Let’s play FAST DRAW (9) across the board at 4-1 or up. Suggest using SHAPE (1), ZION (5) and PAIUTE (8) in exotics.

Race 10 - 107th Running of the Bashford Manor

THEREGOESJOJO (3) ran huge in his debut on May 26th when he rallied from well back to collar a heavy favorite in deep stretch to win by 1 ¾-lengths on the wire. He finds a less than stellar field of juveniles in this edition of the Bashford Manor and should be able to mow them down in the stretch once again.

Let’s play THEREGOESJOJO (3) across the board at 4-1 or up. Suggest using MEDAGLIA D’ONORE (8) and MY DOMINICK JAMES (4) in exotics.
«»Saturday, July 5, 2008