EXPERT PICKS
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JOE KRISTUFEK
EXPERT SELECTIONS
Churchill Downs, Fair Grounds and Twin Spires racing analyst Joe Kristufek began his career in his native Chicago, climbing the ladder at the local racing venues. The 1989 rivalry between Kentucky Derby winner Sunday Silence and his nemesis Easy Goer got Joe hooked on horse racing. A self-proclaimed 'horse racing ambassador', Joe's industry experience spans from Dubai to Hong Kong to more than 35 tracks across North America.
Sunday, November 26, 2023
Double-check listed numbers against program numbers before wagering. Selections subject to change on race day due to scratches, off the turf, etc. For the most up to the minute information, tune in to 'Churchill Downs Today' presented by twinspires.com one hour before first post every racing day, watch the pre-race paddock shows and follow Joe on Twitter @JoeyDaKRacing.
RACE 1
1 PM
Selections: 14/1-2-3-9-11/7-4
| 14 | SHARP SHOT | Looks like a standout on the drop if he happens to draw in |
| 1 | EXPRESS CRUISER | Ran a decent 3rd in most applicable race two back |
| 2 | MASTER OF DISGUISE | His speed is an advantage against this crew |
RACE 2
1:28 PM
Selections: 3-9-2/1-6-7
| 3 | ROSELEE MAY | On the improve; tough to deny in this one |
| 9 | PROMISEMEANEMPIRE | Knocking on the door; finds clear sailing |
| 2 | UP ON THE EDGE | Runner-up in last three; could be graduation day |
RACE 3
1:56 PM
Selections: 7-9-2/3-8
| 7 | MIGHTY MADISON | Sharp works off the bench for a hot team; finds a soft spot |
| 9 | DEVIL BLUE DRESS | Wired maidens in 2nd career start; could win right back |
| 2 | DEAR LADY | Route 4th in tougher race for the level last out; back quick |
RACE 4
2:24 PM
Selections: 1-12/2-5-14
| 1 | ALPINE PRINCESS | Excuse Alcibiades debacle; has trained well since |
| 12 | PHAROAH'S WINE | Troubled trip in only previous try on dirt |
| 2 | SISTINA CHAPEL | Grinding maiden win; only if the others fail |
RACE 5
2:53 PM
Selections: 8-4/6-5/3-7-1-9
| 8 | STAND FOR FREEDOM | Found his friends two back and does so again here |
| 4 | MUST BE LOVE | Guessing he didn't like Keeneland; extremely consistent before that |
| 6 | TROPIC STORM | Majorly consistent; can win if others fail |
RACE 6
3:21 PM
Selections: 10-6/3-11-5
| 10 | LA V. | Runs big when the conditions suit, like they do today |
| 6 | CHARGE ACCOUNT | In a little too tough last out; coin flip with the top choice here |
| 3 | DONYA KNOW IT | Popular claim is capable with her A-game |
RACE 7
3:49 PM
Selections: 3-10-6/4-8-7/1-5
| 3 | ARRO SMASH | Solid 2nd behind legit winner last out at this level |
| 10 | BOURBON RESOLVE | Wilkes lures Luis; serious off the bench |
| 6 | LAVER | Gets a fresh start; watch tote for clues |
RACE 8
4:18 PM
Selections: 5/11-1-12-2/7-8-9
| 5 | HALL OF FAME | Training like a good horse in advance of his debut |
| 11 | REDEPOSIT | Bet down on debut & ran a better than it looks 3rd |
| 1 | J J'S RANGER | Well prepared for debut, but needs to work a trip from the rail |
RACE 9
4:48 PM
Selections: 5/6-2-3-7/4-8/1
| 5 | CYCLONE MISCHIEF | Well prepared for return; should get the right trip |
| 6 | DENINGTON | Closing late in one-turn races is probably his best game |
| 2 | PROMISE ME A RIDE | Has talent but is still trying to find his niche |
RACE 10
5:18 PM
Selections: 8-4-9/3
| 8 | TRAEGAR | Speedy, game & he has an advantageous post today |
| 4 | GIANT MISCHIEF | Still has plenty of upside, but likely to get hammered at the windows today |
| 9 | MINNESOTA READY | Always dangerous in one-turn dirt races; value play vs. more high profile rivals |
RACE 11
5:48 PM
Selections: 1-9-10/15
| 1 | NORTHERN INVADER | Almost as good on dirt as he is on turf |
| 9 | GIGANTE | Adds blinkers & natural speed puts him in the race early |
| 10 | WINTERS LION | As come into his own of late & he's a true dirt horse |
RACE 12
6:18 PM
Selections: 7-6-1/9-8-2
| 7 | FAST N HAPPY | Major trouble in last; blinkers might make a huge difference |
| 6 | BOURBON TO BLAME | 2nd behind a runaway winner on debut; right to improve |
| 1 | VICTORIOUS | Big ticket item debuts off sharp works, but must overcome the rail |
JOE'S TOP PICK STATS FOR FALL MEET 2023 THRU 11-25-23
| RACES | 199 |
| WINS | 47 |
| 2ND | 33 |
| 3RD | 33 |
| WIN % | 23.6% |
| WPS % | 56.8% |
| $2 ROI* | $1.76 |
*ROI is the return on investment of a $2 win bet of our top pick. An ROI of more than $2.00 indicates profitable selections. The average horseplayer has an ROI of $1.60.
SCOTT SHAPIRO
EXPERT SELECTIONS
Scott Shapiro is the Senior Racing Analyst for Churchill Downs and the Kentucky Derby. He fell in love with thoroughbred racing when his father took him to Garden State Park in 1985 to see Kentucky Derby winner Spend A Buck race in the Jersey Derby instead of the Preakness Stakes. Scott graduated from the University of Wisconsin in 1996 and is an avid NFL and PGA fan. His favorite horses are A.P. Indy, Fly So Free, Captain Bodgit, Victory Gallop, and Ghostzapper.
November 26, 2023
Double-check listed numbers against program numbers before wagering. Selections subject to change on race day due to scratches, off the turf, etc. For the most up to the minute information follow Scott on Twitter @ScottShap34.
RACE 1
1:00 PM
Selections: 11-4-2-1-5
| 11 | DON'T STOP | Drops into realistic spot after two tries vs MSW foes |
| 4 | PALHACO | Was off slow on debut in a race won by longshot speed runner |
| 2 | MASTER OF DISGUISE | Has had his chances making ML price tough to swallow |
RACE 2
1:28 PM
Selections: 1-9-2-3
| 1 | AARALYN | Had an impossibly wide voyage in last; moves inside & attracts Tyler |
| 9 | PROMISEMEANEMPIRE | Should benefit from move to outside post |
| 2 | UP ON THE EDGE | Ran into McPeek buzzsaw in last; will break thru soon but 2-1 too short |
RACE 3
1:56 PM
Selections: 7-2-9
| 7 | MIGHTY MADISON | Makes 1st start as 3YO for barn that has been white-hot this fall |
| 2 | DEAR LADY | Should get favorable ground saving voyage under Arrieta |
| 9 | DEVIL BLUE DRESS | Aims to make it back-to-back wire-to-wire scores |
RACE 4
2:24 PM
Selections: 1/5-2-14
| 1 | ALPINE PRINCESS | Gets major class relief & favorable setup for Cox |
| 5 | COPPER EM | Likely has other speed to deal with in first try going route of ground |
| 2 | SISTINA CHAPEL | Looks to make it two straight since moving to main track |
RACE 5
2:53PM
Selections: 8-4-2
| 8 | STAND FOR FREEDOM | Drops to lowest level of career in 2nd start for Asmussen |
| 4 | MUST BE LOVE | Likely to have things easier on the front end than he did on 10/19 |
| 2 | EMPERADOR | Gets some class relief, but not sure he gets favorable raceshape |
RACE 6
3:21 PM
Selections: 7-6-10
| 7 | SHE DAZZLE | Ran solid 2nd to wire-to-wire winner last out; gets better setup here |
| 6 | CHARGE ACCOUNT | Drops back in for tag in 2nd start off claim for Foster |
| 10 | LA V. | Makes up stronger half of Asmussen family uncoupled entry |
RACE 7
3:49 PM
Selections: 3/8-10-1-4
| 3 | ARRO SMASH | Cuts back to 7 panels and comes from off pace to give Bauer/Rigney another one |
| 8 | SPEND BENJAMINS | Has strong late kick; finds soft first-level allowance spot |
| 10 | BOURBON RESOLVE | Makes 1st start off layoff for Wilkes; attracts Saez |
RACE 8
4:18 PM
Selections: 5-11-2/3
| 5 | HALL OF FAME | Pricey son of Gun Runner debuts for strong ownership team/Asmussen |
| 11 | REDEPOSIT | Put forth big effort on debut despite slow start/wide voyage |
| 2 | VESTURE | Has been bet in both starts, but getting out of gate has been issue |
RACE 9
4:48 PM
Selections: 3-7-5-1-6-2-8-4
| 3 | BRITERDAYZAHEAD | Has more talent than last indicates when he never got into race |
| 7 | WICO | Took huge step forward in move to main track last out |
| 5 | CYCLONE MISCHIEF | Makes 1st start since Derby; ran well fresh on debut |
RACE 10
5:18 PM
Selecti0ns: 4-8/1-3
| 4 | GIANT MISCHIEF | Was on Derby Trail earlier, but Cox always hinted might be best at shorter distances |
| 8 | TRAEGAR | Shook off rust w/ career best BRIS speed figure last out |
| 1 | FRIAR LAURENCE | Comes back quickly in tough spot, but is in great form & big price |
RACE 11
5:48 PM
Selections: 1-9-10
| 1 | NORTHERN INVADER | Has earned both victories on sod, but showed ability on dirt as well in 1st 2 starts |
| 9 | GIGANTE | Yet to try dirt as 3YO, but did break maiden on CNL main track |
| 10 | WINTERS LION | Ships in from NY off pair of strong efforts going longer |
RACE 12
6:18 PM
Selections: 8-1-3-6-11
| 8 | MISSILE | Makes 1st start since better than looks debut at KEE in April |
| 1 | VICTORIOUS | Needs to overcome rail draw, but barn sending out live runners all fall |
| 3 | RITA'S ONTHE BEACH | Took significant step forward w/ addition of blinkers earlier this month |
SCOTT’S TOP PICK STATS FOR FALL MEET 2023 THRU 11-24-23
| RACES | 213 |
| WINS | 52 |
| 2ND | 45 |
| 3RD | 25 |
| WIN% | 24.4% |
| WPS% | 57.3% |
| $2 ROI* | $1.61 |
*ROI is the return on investment of a $2 win bet of our top pick. An ROI of more than $2.00 indicates profitable selections. The average horseplayer has an ROI of $1.60.
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