Churchill Downs Racetrack will offer a new twist to its Future Wager menu this year with the debut of the Kentucky Derby Sire Future Wager, which provides bettors with a unique opportunity to wager on select breeding stars and their entire crop of juveniles with the hope of winning next year’s $2 million Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (Grade I) on Saturday, May 7, 2016.
For the first time, Derby fans can wager on the sire that will produce the winner of the upcoming Run for the Roses. Like the Future Wager, the sire wager features 23 individual sires of horses in this year’s crop of Kentucky Derby-age Thoroughbreds, along with an “All Others” betting interest.
The inaugural Kentucky Derby Sire Future Wager, which features $2 Win and Exacta wagering, will be offered concurrently with Pool 1 of the traditional Kentucky Derby Future Wager. Both betting pools open a four-day run on Thanksgiving Day and close Sunday at 6 p.m. (all times Eastern). Bets can be placed at Churchill Downs Racetrack, TwinSpires.com and other online wagering outlets and satellite wagering centers across North America.
The Nov. 26-29 period will be the only time the Kentucky Derby Sire Future Wager is offered.
Churchill Downs’ odds maker Mike Battaglia had the challenging and murky task of crafting a morning line for this new wager that showcases groupings of horses sired by some of the best stallions in the world. He tabbed Tapit and Pioneerof the Nile as 15-1 co-favorites among the 23 individual sires offered in the field of 24 wagering interests, but ultimately settled on “All Other Sires” as a strong even-money morning line favorite.
Tapit is North America’s clear-cut leading sire with earnings of more than $16.3 million this year, and Battaglia believes fans could gravitate to offspring by Pioneerof the Nile, who sired the incredibly-brilliant 2015 Triple Crown and Breeders’ Cup Classic (GI) champ American Pharoah.
Ultimately, the betting public will have the final say, but one thing is certain: savvy horse players nationwide will closely monitor which individual horses or groupings of horses provide the best betting value and how the odds vary between the two pools.
Here’s an example: if the predictive morning lines holds true, bettors could be presented with a good wagering opportunity on leading first-crop sire Uncle Mo, whose list of 133 current progeny includes Breeders’ Cup Juvenile champion Nyquist. Uncle Mo is 20-1 on the morning line in the Kentucky Derby Sire Future Wager and bettors would receive the grouping of all of his sons or daughters, whereas Nyquist is 10-1 on his own as an individual interest in Pool 1 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager.
Here’s the Kentucky Derby Sire Future Wager field (with betting number and morning line odds): Awesome Again (#1, 50-1); Bernardini (#2, 30-1); Blame (#3, 30-1); Candy Ride-ARG (#4, 30-1); Curlin (#5, 30-1); Distorted Humor (#6, 20-1); Eskendereya (#7, 30-1); Ghostzapper (#8, 30-1); Giant’s Causeway (#9, 20-1); Hard Spun (#10, 30-1); Harlan’s Holiday (#11, 30-1); Kitten’s Joy (#12, 30-1); Malibu Moon (#13, 20-1); Medaglia d’Oro (#14, 20-1); Pioneerof the Nile (#15, 15-1); Scat Daddy (#16, 30-1); Street Sense (#17, 30-1); Super Saver (#18, 50-1); Tapit (#19, 15-1); Tiznow (#20, 20-1); Unbridled’s Song (#21, 20-1); Uncle Mo (#22, 20-1); War Front (#23, 20-1); and “All Other Sires” (#24, 1-1).
No scratches or refunds of wagers are permitted in the Kentucky Derby Sire Future Wager.
The wagering interests were chosen by a Churchill Downs team that includes Racing Secretary Ben Huffman, Senior Director of Communications & Media Services Darren Rogers, Pari-Mutuel Marketing Manager Gary Palmisano and Vice President, Racing Communications John Asher.
Churchill Downs has customized an official program page that contains various statistical information for each sire including its career highlights; record of progeny in the Kentucky Derby; a list of progeny that have earned $30,000 or more; current number of 2-year-olds; average yearling and 2-year-old sale price for the 2013 crop; the average winning distance for the sire’s offspring; and the number of individual runners, winners, stakes winners and total earnings for 2015 and the sire’s career. The program page is accessible and can be downloaded at https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/future-wager/derby-sire-pool.
Also, Brisnet.com has provided a variety of additional handicapping information, including past performances for the current colts and geldings for every individual sire. The information can be accessed free of charge at http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/Derby16SirePPs.pdf. Also, the information can easily be accessed by the clicking the name of each horse on the live odds page at https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/future-wager/derby-sire-pool.
Nine of the sires have offspring that are individual betting interests in the traditional Kentucky Derby Future Wager, including Tapit who has three (Mohaymen, Synchrony and Conquest Big E) and Bernardini who has two (Greenpointcrusader and Sail Ahoy). The others are Candy Ride-ARG (Gun Runner), Curlin (Exaggerator), Eskendereya (Mor Spirit), Giant’s Causeway (Brody’s Cause), Harlan’s Holiday (Annual Report), Unbridled’s Song (Unbridled Outlaw) and Uncle Mo (Nyquist).
Because the Kentucky Derby Future Wager is limited to 23 individual horses, the Kentucky Derby Sire Future Wager provides bettors an opportunity to wager on groupings of horses that could include a horse that didn’t make the cut for the traditional wager. Every year, Churchill Downs’ selection committee is challenged with the task of deciding which 23 betting interests they believe could attract the most wagering action but ultimately a deserving consideration is left off.
One such example includes 2-year-olds Seymourdini and Shagaf, who both won maiden special weight races on Sunday at Aqueduct. Both were left off the Kentucky Derby Future Wager, but their supporters now have the options of playing the “All Others” in the KDFW or their sire Bernardini in the Kentucky Derby Sire Future Wager.
The only sires among the individual betting interests that have sired Kentucky Derby winners are Distorted Humor (Funny Cide in 2003), Malibu Moon (Orb in 2013) and Pioneerof the Nile (American Pharoah in 2015). Meanwhile, Street Sense (2007) and Super Saver (2010) have the distinction of being Kentucky Derby winners.
Kitten’s Joy leads all individual sires with 136 current 2-year-olds and is followed by Uncle Mo with 133 and Scat Daddy with 130. Pioneerof the Nile and War Front have the least with 49 and 50, respectively.
Scat Daddy has produced the most winners of at least $30,000 thus far – 23 juveniles, including 10 males. He’s followed by Uncle Mo (20 juveniles/12 colts or geldings); Tapit (16/8); Harlan’s Holiday (12/4); Giant’s Causeway (10/7), Hard Spun (10/6). Awesome Again (2/2), Candy Ride-ARG (3/3), Ghostzapper (3/3), Tiznow (3/2) and Medaglia d’Oro (4/1) have produced the least number of $30,000 earners to date.
Darley of Lexington, Ky. and WinStar Farm of Versailles, Ky. lead all breeding farms with four stallions each offered in the Kentucky Derby Sire Future Wager and they’re closely followed by a trio at Coolmore’s Ashford Stud in Versailles, Ky. Below is a complete list (with 2015 stud fee):
- Adena Springs: Awesome Again ($75,000) and Ghostzapper ($60,000)
- Ashford Stud: Giant’s Causeway ($85,000), Scat Daddy ($35,000) and Uncle Mo ($25,000)
- Claiborne Farm: War Front ($150,000) and Blame ($20,000)
- Darley: Medaglia d’Oro ($125,000), Bernardini ($85,000), Hard Spun ($35,000) and Street Sense ($35,000)
- Gainesway: Tapit ($300,000)
- Lane’s End: Candy Ride-ARG ($60,000) and Curlin ($35,000)
- Ramsey Farm: Kitten’s Joy ($100,000)
- Spendthrift Farm: Malibu Moon ($95,000)
- Taylor Made Stallions: Eskendereya ($17,500)
- WinStar Farm: Distorted Humor ($100,000), Tiznow ($75,000), Pioneerof the Nile ($60,000) and Super Saver ($35,000)
- Deceased in 2013: Harlan’s Holiday and Unbridled’s Song
|2016 Kentucky Derby Sire Future Wager Pool 1 Thursday, Nov. 26-Sunday, Nov. 29, 2015|
|#||Wagering Interest||Morning Line Odds||Winning Payout|
|4||Candy Ride (ARG)||30-1|
|15||Pioneerof the Nile||15-1|
|24||Mutuel Field (All Other Sires)||1-1|
|Morning Line Odds by Mike Battaglia|
Dates for the remaining 2016 Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks future pools are:
- KDFW Pool 2 – Feb. 12-14
- KDFW Pool 3 – March 11-13
- Kentucky Oaks Future Wager – March 11-13
- KDFW Pool 3 – April 1-3
Information on the Kentucky Derby is available online at the redesigned official event web site at www.KentuckyDerby.com/FutureWager. Real-time odds on the Kentucky Derby Site Future Wager, the Kentucky Derby Future Wager and Kentucky Oaks Future Wager will be presented on that site throughout each pool.
To view a pdf file of this news release, click here .