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Race Expert
Churchill Downs, Fair Grounds and Twin Spires racing analyst Joe Kristufek began his career in his native Chicago, climbing the ladder at the local racing venues. The 1989 rivalry between Kentucky Derby winner Sunday Silence and his nemesis Easy Goer got Joe hooked on horse racing. A self-proclaimed "horse racing ambassador", Joe's industry experience spans from Dubai to Hong Kong to more than 35 tracks across North America.
JoeyDaKRacing

October 02 2022

Double-check listed numbers against program numbers before wagering.
Selections subject to change on race day due to scratches, off the turf, etc. For the most up to the minute information, tune in to "Churchill Downs Today" presented by twinspires.com one hour before first post every racing day, watch the pre-race paddock shows and follow Joe on Twitter @JoeyDaKRacing.
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Race 1

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2 Easy Big Boy

Got cooked in tougher spot; blinkers get him over the hump

8 Maestoso

Solid debut works + logically placed + advantageous post

4 Big Beemster

Even effort in fast race for the $20K level last out

Selections: 2-8-4/7-6-3

Race 2

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5 Distorted Secrets

Even effort with better on turf in needed race in last

2 Honey Run

Out the back closer fits well, but needs pace to chase

4 Legerity

Cuts back turf to dirt; good as any in here

Selections: 5-2-4/3-6-1

Race 3

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7 Atkins

His dam was a stakes placed sprinter; sharp debut works

1 Childers

Speedy, experienced & well placed; the one to beat

5 Cortese

Knocking on the door; what you see is what you get

Selections: 7-1-5-2

Race 4

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4 Bronze Beast

Recent 3rd this level was much better than it looks

1 Mountain Ghost

Ran a creditable race vs. better here in June

2 Commander Compton

Out the back closer sliding down the class ladder

Selections: 4/1-2-5/6-7

Race 5

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2 Olazabal

Battled a hot pace & held best of the speed to be 2nd last out

3 Salta

Hung wide in both starts vs. better; fits like a glove

6 Boxster

Ran big on debut, but has regressed in two starts since

Selections: 2-3-6/5-8

Race 6

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1 Family Man

Rested, ready & best suited to nine furlongs

6 Leader of Men

Usually run his race; gets the right trip

5 All West

In fine form, but nine furlongs might be a smidge more than he wants

Selections: 1-6-5/7-4/2-3

Race 7

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6 Alpha Bella

Hung out to dry vs. runaway Spa winner on debut

4 Destine to Race

Troubled 3rd on debut & wide on KYD turf in last

10 Midvale

Chased monster on debut; must work a trip

Selections: 6-4-10-5-9

Race 8

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4 Explosive

3rd behind two talented favorites in last dirt try

1 Breaking News

Looks good on paper, but usually falls short

7 Leblon

Better on turf or synth but not impossible here

Selections: 4-1-7/2-6-5/3

Race 9

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1 Lovely Princess

Banking on turf form converting to dirt

8 Berate

Better than she looks; should handle the main track

7 She's Keen

Overmatched in last; gift wrapped win two back

Selections: 1-8/7-3-5/4/6

Race 10

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7 Skelly

Sharp 2nd on debut & has trained well since

5 Victory March

Fast return works & still has upside; watch tote for clues

4 Engrave

Plenty of chances; could finally break through

Selections: 7-5-4-6/2-3

Joe's Top Pick Statistics Sept/Fall 2022 thru 10-2

Races Wins 2nd 3rd Win % WPS % $2 ROI*
133 29 24 19 21.8% 54.1% $2.06

*ROI is the return on investment of a $2 win bet of our top pick. An ROI of more than $2.00 indicates profitable selections. The average horseplayer has an ROI of $1.60.



Expert selections by:

Joe Kristufek | Scott Shapiro