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EXPERT PICKS

SATURDAY, MAY 2 — KENTUCKY DERBY DAY

FIRST POST 11 AM ET

DERBY CITY SIX CARRYOVER = $110,100 (RACES 7-12)
JACKPOT 8 CARRYOVER = $273,214 (RACE 12)

Joe Kristufek

Churchill Downs, Ellis Park, Fair Grounds and Twin Spires' senior producer & racing analyst Joe Kristufek began his career in his native Chicago, climbing the ladder at the local racing venues. The 1989 rivalry between Kentucky Derby winner Sunday Silence and his nemesis Easy Goer got Joe hooked on the game. A self-proclaimed "horse racing ambassador", Joe's industry experience spans from Dubai to Hong Kong to roughly 40 tracks across North America.

RACE 1

  • 11. POWERSHIFT

    HUGE DEBUT; EXCUSE FOR TAMPA BAY DERBY `

Selections:

11-8-3/9-6

RACE 2

  • 8. TAPTASTIC

    HELD HIS OWN VS. RENEGADE IN ARKANSAS DERBY

Selections:

8-4/6-1-2

RACE 3

  • 2. VAMOS CARLITOS

    CAREER BEST EFFORT IN LAST; CAN HE REPEAT IT?

Selections:

2-12/10-5-6

RACE 4

  • 1. USHA

    DOMINANT WINNER AT 7F LAST OUT; RESTED & READY

Selections:

1-5/4-6

RACE 5

  • 7. YELLOW CARD

    SHOULD HAVE WON LAST AT KEE; EDGE HERE

Selections:

7/3/6-8-10-9

RACE 6

  • 4. BE YOU

    3RD BEHIND A PAIR OF GOOD ONES LAST OUT; EDGE

Selections:

4/2-10-6/3

RACE 7

  • 1. ITALIAN SOIREE

    IMPROVED WITH BLINKERS; POCKET TRIP?

  • 3.

Selections:

1-3/8-2-5

RACE 8

  • 1. ENGLISHMAN

    FREAKISH SO FAR; CLEAN BREAK IS KEY

Selections:

1-6/5-2-8

RACE 9

  • 4. STARK CONTRAST

    PASSED ON DERBY FOR THIS; CLASS OF THE FIELD

Selections:

4/10-12-14-7

RACE 10

  • 6. KNIGHTSBRIDGE

    HAS BEEN DOMINANT; HIS RACE TO LOSE

Selections:

6/1-8-2-7

RACE 11

  • 7. GOLD PHOENIX (IRE)

    CLOSED INTO A SLOW PACE LAST OUT; CAN UPSET WITH A-GAME

Selections:

7-6/4-3-9

RACE 12

  • 1. RENEGADE

    LOVED HIS ARKANSAS DERBY; MUST OVERCOME THE RAIL

  • 12. CHIEF WALLABEE

    NARROW MISSES IN FLORIDA G1'S; BLINKERS THE KEY?

  • 9. THE PUMA

    LOVE HIS PROGRESSION; BETTER THAN HE LOOKS

Selections:

1-12-9/18-15-6-7/19-8-14

RACE 13

  • 2. HEARTILY

    FIRST GELDING + BLINKERS OFF + HUGE RETURN WORKS = UPSET?

Selections:

2-8-11-10/5

RACE 14

  • 9. BIG JAKE

    EDGE OVER OTHER INRIGUING DEBUTERS

Selections:

9-1/7-4-5-3

Kevin Kilroy

Kevin Kilroy is a racing and handicapping analyst covering the racing at Churchill Downs, Colonial Downs, Ellis Park, Fair Grounds and Turfway Park.

Race 1

  • 6. CROMWELL

    TALENTED COLT APPEARS TO BE FIGURING IT OUT

Selections:

6,3,11/8,5,4,2

Race 2

  • 11. LINCOLN'S LAW

    STALKED TOUGH FOE ON SPEED BIAS TRACK THEN DROPPED TO DEAD RAIL LATE IN LAST

Selections:

11,8/7/6,4,2,3,1

Race 3

  • 8. RACING DRIVER

    HAS BEEN FACING TOP CLASS COMPANY; RETURNS TO BEST DISTANCE/SURFACE

Selections:

8,6,2/14,12,9/13,4,5

Race 4

  • 4. WAYS AND MEANS

    CLASS OF THE FIELD WILL BE HARD TO DENY

Selections:

4/6/5/1,3

Race 5

  • 9. LITIGATION

    DIDN'T APPEAR TO HANDLE KEE TURF WELL LAST OUT

Selections:

9,7/8,10/3,2,1

Race 6

  • 6. TOUR PLAYER

    EXCUSE AT GP; SHOWED HIS HAND IN ROYAL NEW KENT

Selections:

6,10,1/11,2,4,7

Race 7

  • 7. MOVIN ON UP

    FAVE IN THIS RACE LAST YEAR HAD STRONG SPRINT PREP FOR THIS

Selections:

7,2,4/8,5,1

Race 8

  • 1. ENGLISHMAN

    HAS WON BOTH STARTS LIKE THERE'S WAY MORE HORSE HERE

Selections:

1/2/6/5,9,11

Race 9

  • 4. START CONTRAST

    FASTEST IN THIS GROUP SHOULD WORK OUT A PERFECT TRIP

Selections:

4/12/9,1/13,10,8

Race 10

  • 7. IMAGINATION

    HE'S BEEN OUTSTANDING SINCE CUTTING BACK; BIGGER AND BETTER THAN CORNUCOPIAN IN A.M.

Selections:

7,5,6/1,8,2/11

Race 11

  • 10. MAKE ME KING

    FIGURES LOOK RIGHT TO BACK THIS EURO CLASS

Selections:

10,9/6,7/1

Race 12

  • 6. COMMANDMENT

    UNSTOPPABLE BULLY READY TO ROLL 12s FOR THE ROSES

Selections:

6/19,11/15,18/16,12,9,14

Race 13

  • 1. SMALL TOWN

    ROLLED BY STARK CONTRAST IN A.M. ON 4.17

Selections:

1,5/11,8,10,2,7

Race 14

  • 9. BIG JAKE

    LOVED HIS MOVE WITH DESSERT GATE, WHO IS AN EXCELLENT WORK HORSE

Selections:

9,7,1/3,4,6

Tony Calo

Churchill Downs Racing Analyst as well as Turfway Park and Ellis Park Announcer.

RACE 1

  • 11. POWERSHIFT

    HE GAVE HIS ALL VS. EMERGING MARKET AND HAS BEEN WORKING WITH RENEGADE

Selections:

11/8-6-4-10

Race 2

  • 4. MEMORY

    PRAT LANDS HERE FOR BAFFERT, GAME IN RECENT WIN

Selections:

4-8/2-6

Race 3

  • 10. VIBE

    GREAT COMEBACK WIN AND THERE IS MORE TO COME

Selections:

10-5-12/2-6/8-1-9

Race 4

  • 4. WAYS AND MEANS

    SHE IS A VERY SPECIAL RACE HORSE AND CHAD BROWN IS ON TOP OF THE WORLD

Selections:

4-5/1-6

Race 5

  • 9. LITIGATION

    HE PACKS A POWERFUL PUNCH IN THE LANE, HIS MOST RECENT NOT HIS BEST

Selections:

9/7-3-10-6

Race 6

  • 6. TOUR PLAYER

    HE'S ON THE CUSP OF BEING A HOUSEHOLD NAME

Selections:

6/2/10-4-11

Race 7

  • 2. PORTFOLOIO DURATION

    SHE COULD BE A FUTURE SUPERSTAR

Selections:

3-2/5-4-8-7

Race 8

  • 1. ENGLISHMAN

    HE HAS BEEN SENSATIONAL IN BOTH CAREER RACES

Selections:

1-6/2-5

Race 9

  • 4. STARK CONTRAST

    HUGE EFFORT IN THE BC JUVENILE TURF AND BIG IN DEFEAT IN THE JEFF RUBY

Selections:

4/12-14/8-7-1-6

Race 10

  • 2. CORNUCOPIAN

    HE IS AN EXTREMELY TALENTED HORSE WHO IS BETTER THIS YEAR

Selections:

2-6-5/1-7-4

Race 11

  • 9. TEST SCORE

    SENSATIONAL WIN IN THE PEGASUS TURF, BIG IN DEFEAT LAST YEAR OVER THIS COURSE

Selections:

9-6/4-3-10

Race 12

  • 6. COMMANDMENT

    HE'S ALL HEART WHO LOVES A FIGHT, HE'S LOOKING FOR A BIG HI-5

Selections:

6-12-9/18-1-19-15/14-11-8-7

Race 13

  • 8. GILDED BANDIT

    BIG HORSE WITH A POWERFUL STRIDE OVERCAME TROUBLE IN MAIDEN WIN

Selections:

8/10-11-5/2-1

Race 14

  • 1. BOYLSTON

    BLUE PRIZE BABY HAS A LOOK TO HIM IN HIS MORNING WORKS

Selections:

1-9-4/8-14

JOE K'S FINAL 2025 FALL STATS

RACES                                           150
'A' COLUMN WINS 77
'A' COLUMN WIN % 51.3%
TOP PICK WINS 50
2ND 31
3RD 15
WIN % 33%
WPS % 64%
$2 ROI $1.87
$6 WPS ROI $5.15

KAITLIN'S 2025 FALL STATS

RACES                                           73
'A' COLUMN WINS 36
'A' COLUMN WIN % 49.3%
TOP PICK WINS 15
2ND 13
3RD 8
WIN % 20.5%
WPS % 49.3%
$2 ROI $1.44
$6 WPS ROI $4.98

KILROY'S 2026 SPRING STATS THROUGH 4-26

RACES                                           19
'A' COLUMN WINS 14
'A' COLUMN WIN % 74%
TOP PICK WINS 7
2ND 3
3RD 1
WIN % 37%
WPS % 58%
$2 TOP PICKS ROI $1.69
$6 WPS ROI $4.89

TONY'S 2026 SPRING MEET

RACES                                          
'A' COLUMN WINS
'A' COLUMN WIN %
TOP PICK WINS
2ND
3RD
WIN %
WPS %
$2 ROI
$6 WPS ROI

EXPERT PICKS AND YOU

Professional handicappers analyze races and suggest top horses with insightful analysis. Additionally offering specific bets like Win, Exacta, or Trifecta tickets for consideration. These picks often include reasoning, such as a horse’s recent performance, speed figures, or trainer success. For a beginner, they are helpful because they explain why a horse is a good choice and can help add confidence instead of guessing.

 

For a first-time bettor, “expert picks” from TwinSpires, Churchill Downs, and Kentucky Derby are simply guidance tools to help you choose horses more confidently. Simulcast, or track analysts, tend to be laser focused with day-to-day familiarity of each horse and TwinSpires expert picks are typically the most detailed from written and data based approaches.

 

Churchill Downs expert picks can be found in the race program. They list horses in ranked order for each race, often without much explanation due to program succinctness. Think of these as a quick references or starting points if you don’t want to do deep research.

 

Kentucky Derby expert picks are broader and come from many sources, including media analysts and racing insiders. They focus on the biggest race and often highlight top contenders, favorites, and longshots. Because there are many opinions, you’ll often see differences between experts.

 

The key for beginners is not to follow any single pick blindly. Instead, use them together. If multiple sources agree on a horse, that can be a strong signal. Expert picks are best used to narrow your choices, not make decisions for you, helping you bet smarter while still enjoying the experience.

Joe Kristufek

Churchill Downs, Ellis Park, Fair Grounds and Twin Spires' senior producer & racing analyst Joe Kristufek began his career in his native Chicago, climbing the ladder at the local racing venues. The 1989 rivalry between Kentucky Derby winner Sunday Silence and his nemesis Easy Goer got Joe hooked on the game. A self-proclaimed "horse racing ambassador", Joe's industry experience spans from Dubai to Hong Kong to roughly 40 tracks across North America.

RACE 1

  • 11. POWERSHIFT

    HUGE DEBUT; EXCUSE FOR TAMPA BAY DERBY `

Selections:

11-8-3/9-6

RACE 2

  • 8. TAPTASTIC

    HELD HIS OWN VS. RENEGADE IN ARKANSAS DERBY

Selections:

8-4/6-1-2

RACE 3

  • 2. VAMOS CARLITOS

    CAREER BEST EFFORT IN LAST; CAN HE REPEAT IT?

Selections:

2-12/10-5-6

RACE 4

  • 1. USHA

    DOMINANT WINNER AT 7F LAST OUT; RESTED & READY

Selections:

1-5/4-6

RACE 5

  • 7. YELLOW CARD

    SHOULD HAVE WON LAST AT KEE; EDGE HERE

Selections:

7/3/6-8-10-9

RACE 6

  • 4. BE YOU

    3RD BEHIND A PAIR OF GOOD ONES LAST OUT; EDGE

Selections:

4/2-10-6/3

RACE 7

  • 1. ITALIAN SOIREE

    IMPROVED WITH BLINKERS; POCKET TRIP?

  • 3.

Selections:

1-3/8-2-5

RACE 8

  • 1. ENGLISHMAN

    FREAKISH SO FAR; CLEAN BREAK IS KEY

Selections:

1-6/5-2-8

RACE 9

  • 4. STARK CONTRAST

    PASSED ON DERBY FOR THIS; CLASS OF THE FIELD

Selections:

4/10-12-14-7

RACE 10

  • 6. KNIGHTSBRIDGE

    HAS BEEN DOMINANT; HIS RACE TO LOSE

Selections:

6/1-8-2-7

RACE 11

  • 7. GOLD PHOENIX (IRE)

    CLOSED INTO A SLOW PACE LAST OUT; CAN UPSET WITH A-GAME

Selections:

7-6/4-3-9

RACE 12

  • 1. RENEGADE

    LOVED HIS ARKANSAS DERBY; MUST OVERCOME THE RAIL

  • 12. CHIEF WALLABEE

    NARROW MISSES IN FLORIDA G1'S; BLINKERS THE KEY?

  • 9. THE PUMA

    LOVE HIS PROGRESSION; BETTER THAN HE LOOKS

Selections:

1-12-9/18-15-6-7/19-8-14

RACE 13

  • 2. HEARTILY

    FIRST GELDING + BLINKERS OFF + HUGE RETURN WORKS = UPSET?

Selections:

2-8-11-10/5

RACE 14

  • 9. BIG JAKE

    EDGE OVER OTHER INRIGUING DEBUTERS

Selections:

9-1/7-4-5-3

Kevin Kilroy

Kevin Kilroy is a racing and handicapping analyst covering the racing at Churchill Downs, Colonial Downs, Ellis Park, Fair Grounds and Turfway Park.

Race 1

  • 6. CROMWELL

    TALENTED COLT APPEARS TO BE FIGURING IT OUT

Selections:

6,3,11/8,5,4,2

Race 2

  • 11. LINCOLN'S LAW

    STALKED TOUGH FOE ON SPEED BIAS TRACK THEN DROPPED TO DEAD RAIL LATE IN LAST

Selections:

11,8/7/6,4,2,3,1

Race 3

  • 8. RACING DRIVER

    HAS BEEN FACING TOP CLASS COMPANY; RETURNS TO BEST DISTANCE/SURFACE

Selections:

8,6,2/14,12,9/13,4,5

Race 4

  • 4. WAYS AND MEANS

    CLASS OF THE FIELD WILL BE HARD TO DENY

Selections:

4/6/5/1,3

Race 5

  • 9. LITIGATION

    DIDN'T APPEAR TO HANDLE KEE TURF WELL LAST OUT

Selections:

9,7/8,10/3,2,1

Race 6

  • 6. TOUR PLAYER

    EXCUSE AT GP; SHOWED HIS HAND IN ROYAL NEW KENT

Selections:

6,10,1/11,2,4,7

Race 7

  • 7. MOVIN ON UP

    FAVE IN THIS RACE LAST YEAR HAD STRONG SPRINT PREP FOR THIS

Selections:

7,2,4/8,5,1

Race 8

  • 1. ENGLISHMAN

    HAS WON BOTH STARTS LIKE THERE'S WAY MORE HORSE HERE

Selections:

1/2/6/5,9,11

Race 9

  • 4. START CONTRAST

    FASTEST IN THIS GROUP SHOULD WORK OUT A PERFECT TRIP

Selections:

4/12/9,1/13,10,8

Race 10

  • 7. IMAGINATION

    HE'S BEEN OUTSTANDING SINCE CUTTING BACK; BIGGER AND BETTER THAN CORNUCOPIAN IN A.M.

Selections:

7,5,6/1,8,2/11

Race 11

  • 10. MAKE ME KING

    FIGURES LOOK RIGHT TO BACK THIS EURO CLASS

Selections:

10,9/6,7/1

Race 12

  • 6. COMMANDMENT

    UNSTOPPABLE BULLY READY TO ROLL 12s FOR THE ROSES

Selections:

6/19,11/15,18/16,12,9,14

Race 13

  • 1. SMALL TOWN

    ROLLED BY STARK CONTRAST IN A.M. ON 4.17

Selections:

1,5/11,8,10,2,7

Race 14

  • 9. BIG JAKE

    LOVED HIS MOVE WITH DESSERT GATE, WHO IS AN EXCELLENT WORK HORSE

Selections:

9,7,1/3,4,6

Tony Calo

Churchill Downs Racing Analyst as well as Turfway Park and Ellis Park Announcer.

RACE 1

  • 11. POWERSHIFT

    HE GAVE HIS ALL VS. EMERGING MARKET AND HAS BEEN WORKING WITH RENEGADE

Selections:

11/8-6-4-10

Race 2

  • 4. MEMORY

    PRAT LANDS HERE FOR BAFFERT, GAME IN RECENT WIN

Selections:

4-8/2-6

Race 3

  • 10. VIBE

    GREAT COMEBACK WIN AND THERE IS MORE TO COME

Selections:

10-5-12/2-6/8-1-9

Race 4

  • 4. WAYS AND MEANS

    SHE IS A VERY SPECIAL RACE HORSE AND CHAD BROWN IS ON TOP OF THE WORLD

Selections:

4-5/1-6

Race 5

  • 9. LITIGATION

    HE PACKS A POWERFUL PUNCH IN THE LANE, HIS MOST RECENT NOT HIS BEST

Selections:

9/7-3-10-6

Race 6

  • 6. TOUR PLAYER

    HE'S ON THE CUSP OF BEING A HOUSEHOLD NAME

Selections:

6/2/10-4-11

Race 7

  • 2. PORTFOLOIO DURATION

    SHE COULD BE A FUTURE SUPERSTAR

Selections:

3-2/5-4-8-7

Race 8

  • 1. ENGLISHMAN

    HE HAS BEEN SENSATIONAL IN BOTH CAREER RACES

Selections:

1-6/2-5

Race 9

  • 4. STARK CONTRAST

    HUGE EFFORT IN THE BC JUVENILE TURF AND BIG IN DEFEAT IN THE JEFF RUBY

Selections:

4/12-14/8-7-1-6

Race 10

  • 2. CORNUCOPIAN

    HE IS AN EXTREMELY TALENTED HORSE WHO IS BETTER THIS YEAR

Selections:

2-6-5/1-7-4

Race 11

  • 9. TEST SCORE

    SENSATIONAL WIN IN THE PEGASUS TURF, BIG IN DEFEAT LAST YEAR OVER THIS COURSE

Selections:

9-6/4-3-10

Race 12

  • 6. COMMANDMENT

    HE'S ALL HEART WHO LOVES A FIGHT, HE'S LOOKING FOR A BIG HI-5

Selections:

6-12-9/18-1-19-15/14-11-8-7

Race 13

  • 8. GILDED BANDIT

    BIG HORSE WITH A POWERFUL STRIDE OVERCAME TROUBLE IN MAIDEN WIN

Selections:

8/10-11-5/2-1

Race 14

  • 1. BOYLSTON

    BLUE PRIZE BABY HAS A LOOK TO HIM IN HIS MORNING WORKS

Selections:

1-9-4/8-14

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